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Securities Forecasting

Our forecasting systems represent an advancement in the field of equity analysis. Now for the first time, recognised statistical models are being employed to forecast share prices and indices.

The Prozentor forecasting system can be employed with nearly all national and international exchanges, thus we run forecasts on German indices like the DAX, MDAX and TecDAX and leading international indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and NIKKEI.

On the website HappyYuppie we offer a unique service: precise forecasting for major German equities.

What is this kind of forecasting useful for?

This type of securities forecasting provides a first-rate investment decision-making aid. Forecasting can be used to determine the optimal timing for buy or sell transactions to maximise profits.

Short-range forecasting identifies signals useful for profitable trading even in markets churning sideways. Medium to long-term forecasting is utilised to identify trends and translated these into profits by buying or short selling securities accordingly.

Equity forecasting and trading signals can be utilised in designing a Quantitative Trading System. Portfolios to be managed in this fashion may involve a maximum number of positions that are equally weighted or optimally weighted according to the Markowitz theory, for example. Short-selling can be integrated as an option, or a cash allocation.

What is special about this type of forecasting?

Time series models have distinct advantages over traditional methods like technical and fundamental analysis:

1. Forecasting quality is scientifically proven.
2. You get precise information, such as the exact price at a specific point in time, as well as the confidence interval reflecting forecasting uncertainty.
3. Forecasting can be conducted for time horizons ranging from the short-term (hours) to the medium (days) and very long term (months).
4. The mathematical and scientific basis upon which our forecasting rests ensures maximum objectivity.
5. The HappyYuppie website offers share forecasting nearly in real-time, as projections are calculated within just a few seconds.

Who uses this kind of forecasting?

Our forecasting system is an ideal addition to banks’ web services offering. They are also used by active private investors as a reliable decision-making aid for selecting top-performing DAX shares. Money managers also utilise such forecasting for trading.

Our forecasting tool is available in four versions designed for different time horizons:

Forecasting tool	Forecasting horizon	Updated
Real-time tool	Next few minutes	In real time
Short-term tool	Next five hours	Hourly
Medium-term tool	Next five days	Hourly
Long-term tool	Next five months	Daily

Procedures and methods

1. ARMA models are used to generate forecasts for all shares for the next five hours, five days or five months.
2. Trading signals are identified on the basis of share forecasting and volatility.