Forex Forecasting
Our Forex forecasting is an automated statistical system for projecting forex time series.
This system is effectively neutral and unbiased, and immune to fads. The objective is to generate reliable forecasting over spans of an hours and days.
What is this kind of forecasting useful for?
Our forex forecasting provides objective projections of expectable forex time series. Eliminating potential subjective perceptions, on the part of the forecast preparer for example, ensures objectivity. It also facilitates assessment of the current market situation and investment decision-making.
What is special about this type of forecasting?
Statistical software applications like SPSS are not able to engage with particularities of the time series with the same specificity. Phenomena like volatility clusters and the arch effect are not sufficiently factored into forecast preparation using conventional statistics software, leading to distorted forecast outcomes.
Our software allows utilising data on consistent multi-currency systems for forecasting, and simultaneous modelling/forecasting of multiple forex time series.
Who uses this kind of forecasting?
This forecasting is used by banks and professional private investors looking to deploy capital in foreign currencies. Our medium-range forex forecasting is also useful as a reliable decision-making aid for currency hedging.
Procedures and methods
There are two levels to forex forecasting:
- Simulation study: A wide range of ARIMAX models can be used for forecasting a time series In the simulation study the optimal forecasting models are determined for all forex time series, usually semi-annually. To this end a large number of potential model outcomes are estimated by our simulation software in fully automated fashion. The model then selected is the one that best explains that observed historical price data.
- Forecasting system: The data available for forecasting derives exclusively from forex time series.
- Using ARIMAX statistical time series analysis models, single or multi-step forecasts are generated for each currency pair.
- Forecasts can be prepared as part of a consistent multi-currency system when more than one currency pair is being considered. In such case forecasting will fulfil consistency conditions such as 'EUR/USD * USD/JPY = EUR/JPY'
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